Procurement Spectrum Analysis

The Compound Chokepoint Threat

Two maritime chokepoints, one unprecedented supply chain crisis | Procurement Spectrum, April 2026
Red Sea
Bab el-Mandeb Strait
AFRICA ARABIA BAB EL-MANDEB SUEZ
~90%
drop in container traffic
(Dec 2023 – Feb 2024)
12–15%
of global trade normally transits here
50%
fewer Suez transits
26,000 → 13,213 ships
$7 bn+
lost Egypt canal revenue
Status
Disrupted since December 2023
Trigger
Houthi attacks on commercial shipping
DUAL
CRISIS
Strait of Hormuz
Persian Gulf Outlet
IRAN UAE / OMAN PERSIAN GULF STRAIT
95%
collapse in ship transits
130/day → 6
25%
of seaborne oil
~20 million barrels/day
20%
of global LNG
primarily Qatari exports
30%
of fertiliser trade transits here
Status
Blocked since February 2026
Trigger
Iran response to US/Israeli military strikes
Combined Impact
44,000+
businesses across 174 economies with exposed shipments
~25%
of world energy supply would be blocked if both chokepoints close simultaneously
war risk insurance premiums doubled ($375K → $750K per transit)

Container Magazine described this as a “dual chokepoint crisis without precedent in modern container shipping.” Iran has threatened closure of Bab el-Mandeb as well — if both close, approximately one quarter of the world’s energy supply would be blocked.