From Chokepoint Disruption to the Customer's Door

How the Red Sea and Hormuz crises cascade through real industries to reach the end consumer
Procurement Spectrum analytical framework — built on sourced data

CAUSE EFFECT Maritime Chokepoint Disruption Consumer Impact Pays more, waits longer, or can't get the product 6 CHANNELS CONVERGE HERE +21 days for Asian parts 70% EU auto parts via Red Sea Tesla Berlin shuts 2 wks / 5-7K cars lost Stellantis air-freights parts at premium AUTOMOTIVE Car delivery delayed, prices rise 25-35% shipping cost increase IKEA, Walmart, Amazon face delays Seasonal stock misses selling window RETAIL & CONSUMER Empty shelves, higher retail prices Wheat shipments fall 40% early Jan 2024 Robusta coffee prices +9%, 16-yr high FOOD & AGRICULTURE Food price inflation, less availability Kemira, MOSAIC reroute shipments Fertiliser trade 30% via Hormuz at risk Urea prices $475 to $680/mt CHEMICALS & FERTILISERS Input costs rise, flow into food prices Hormuz: 25% seaborne oil, 20% LNG Brent crude surges 10-13% Jet fuel, diesel supply tightens ENERGY & FUEL Higher fuel, heating, transport costs J.P. Morgan: +0.7pp core goods inflation Effective shipping capacity -9% 44,000+ firms, 174 economies, 80% SMEs MACRO / ECONOMY-WIDE Broad price increases, delays everywhere HOW TO READ THIS DIAGRAM Diagonal bone = sector-specific transmission channel Pill = cascade step (read outward from spine) Gold bar = end-customer impact Dashed curve = all paths converge on consumer

This is not six separate problems — it is one disruption with six transmission channels. When both the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz are simultaneously disrupted, these channels compound.